This course covers survival models, their estimation and application to mortality and other decrements. Specific topics include: the concept of a survival model and actuarial notation; estimation of lifetime distributions; multiple state models; maximum likelihood estimation of transition intensities; construction of multiple decrement tables; the binomial model of mortality and its estimation; models with transition intensities depending on age and duration; the census approximation and formulae; statistical comparison of crude rates with standard table; graduation of crude estimates and tests of fidelity and smoothness; analysis of mortality/morbidity and the main forms of selection; models for projection of populations. The analysis of data using numerical computer packages developed during the course will form part of the course assessment.
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